May 14, 2025 Market Update

MARKET UPDATE

5/14/20251 min read

Market Overview
  • Equities: S&P 500 rose 13 points to 5899, breaking key resistance and suggesting a shift into a low-volatility bullish regime.

  • Volatility: VIX is at 18.31, returning to suppressed levels.

  • Sector Trends: Pro-growth sectors like Tech and Communication Services are outperforming; defensives like Health Care are lagging.

  • Big Movers:

    • GOOGL surged on a bullish valuation call.

    • NVDA & AMD gained on strong partner results and buyback news.

    • BA rose on Qatar aircraft order linked to Trump’s trip.

Bonds & Yields
  • Yields Up: 2yr at 4.04%, 10yr at 4.52%, 30yr at 4.97%.

  • Risk Point: Yields above 4.805% (April high) could challenge equity markets.

FX & Commodities
  • Dollar Index: Little changed; early weakness reversed.

  • Gold: Fell ~1.9% to below $3200/oz.

  • Oil & Copper: Both lower.

  • WTI Crude: Down 0.57% to $63.33.

Macro & Trade
  • No major economic data today; focus is on Fedspeak (Jefferson, Daly).

  • Key data tomorrow: Retail sales (+0.2% MoM est.), PPI, Empire Manufacturing.

  • Tariff Watch: 90-day US/China détente seen as recession risk-reducing via tariff cuts and trade momentum.

Outlook
  • SPX Technicals: Broke out above 5750–5785; new support seen at 5600.

  • Target: 6150–6170 range into summer.

  • "Pain trade" is higher – markets continue to climb despite discomfort and skepticism.