May 14, 2025 Market Update
MARKET UPDATE
5/14/20251 min read
Market Overview
Equities: S&P 500 rose 13 points to 5899, breaking key resistance and suggesting a shift into a low-volatility bullish regime.
Volatility: VIX is at 18.31, returning to suppressed levels.
Sector Trends: Pro-growth sectors like Tech and Communication Services are outperforming; defensives like Health Care are lagging.
Big Movers:
GOOGL surged on a bullish valuation call.
NVDA & AMD gained on strong partner results and buyback news.
BA rose on Qatar aircraft order linked to Trump’s trip.
Bonds & Yields
Yields Up: 2yr at 4.04%, 10yr at 4.52%, 30yr at 4.97%.
Risk Point: Yields above 4.805% (April high) could challenge equity markets.
FX & Commodities
Dollar Index: Little changed; early weakness reversed.
Gold: Fell ~1.9% to below $3200/oz.
Oil & Copper: Both lower.
WTI Crude: Down 0.57% to $63.33.
Macro & Trade
No major economic data today; focus is on Fedspeak (Jefferson, Daly).
Key data tomorrow: Retail sales (+0.2% MoM est.), PPI, Empire Manufacturing.
Tariff Watch: 90-day US/China détente seen as recession risk-reducing via tariff cuts and trade momentum.
Outlook
SPX Technicals: Broke out above 5750–5785; new support seen at 5600.
Target: 6150–6170 range into summer.
"Pain trade" is higher – markets continue to climb despite discomfort and skepticism.
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