May 14, 2025 Market Update

Market Overview

• Equities: S&P 500 rose 13 points to 5899, breaking key resistance and suggesting a shift into a low-volatility bullish regime.

• Volatility: VIX is at 18.31, returning to suppressed levels.

• Sector Trends: Pro-growth sectors like Tech and Communication Services are outperforming; defensives like Health Care are lagging.

• Big Movers:

  • GOOGL surged on a bullish valuation call.

  • NVDA & AMD gained on strong partner results and buyback news.

  • BA rose on Qatar aircraft order linked to Trump’s trip.

Bonds & Yields

• Yields Up: 2yr at 4.04%, 10yr at 4.52%, 30yr at 4.97%.

• Risk Point: Yields above 4.805% (April high) could challenge equity markets.

FX & Commodities

• Dollar Index: Little changed; early weakness reversed.

• Gold: Fell ~1.9% to below $3200/oz.

• Oil & Copper: Both lower.

• WTI Crude: Down 0.57% to $63.33.

Macro & Trade

• No major economic data today; focus is on Fedspeak (Jefferson, Daly).

• Key data tomorrow: Retail sales (+0.2% MoM est.), PPI, Empire Manufacturing.

• Tariff Watch: 90-day US/China détente seen as recession risk-reducing via tariff cuts and trade momentum.

Outlook

• SPX Technicals: Broke out above 5750–5785; new support seen at 5600.

• Target: 6150–6170 range into summer.

• "Pain trade" is higher – markets continue to climb despite discomfort and skepticism.